San Francisco Condo Prices Look Up Sharply. Watch What the Same Units Resold For.

If the median San Francisco condo sale is up about a fifth from a year ago, did the condo you are considering get a fifth more expensive? Recent MLS-based market reports put the citywide condo median up somewhere between 16% and 24% year over year for the third quarter and September 2026. In the July 2026 reading, the index that follows the same condos selling twice rose 4.2%. That index peaked in May 2026 and has eased since.

Both numbers are accurate. They measure different things. For anyone pricing a downtown high-rise offer this fall, the difference between them is the most important figure in the market.

Two Measures, One City

The median is the middle sale among whatever happened to close in a given period. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller indices work differently. S&P's methodology describes them as built from pairs of arm's-length sales of the same property, which holds size and quality constant, with those pairs rolled into a three-month moving average. The same document lists a San Francisco condominium index among the Case-Shiller series, and S&P notes that indices segmented by property type track values more accurately. The St. Louis Fed publishes the full monthly series on FRED.

Here is how 2026 has gone on the same-unit measure:

Two things stand out. The same-unit gain is a single-digit number, far below the headline median. And it peaked in late spring, at the same moment headlines about bidding wars were at their loudest. The July 2026 reading is about 1.5% above December 2019 and about 8.4% below the March 2022 peak of 310.48. S&P's September 29 release covered July data, and a newer August reading was scheduled after that. Whatever August shows, the gap between the median and the same-unit index is far too wide for one month to close.

Why the Median Ran So Far Ahead

A median moves when the mix of sales moves, even if no single unit gained much value. The California Association of Realtors says as much in its September 2026 sales report. It warns that changes in median price are not changes in the value of specific homes, and that they can reflect the mix and characteristics of what sold.

San Francisco's condo mix has shifted hard this year. In September, the San Francisco Standard reported that condo inventory in the city was down 50% from a year earlier, after years when supply outran demand. When half the listings disappear, the ones that remain and close skew toward the units buyers compete for. Those tend to be view floors in established towers and well-finished resales in South Beach and Rincon Hill. Older, smaller units that would normally pull the median down make up a smaller share of closings. The middle sale rises even when the typical unit only edges up.

House prices add to the confusion. C.A.R. put San Francisco's September 2026 single-family median at $2,054,000, up 17.4% year over year. That figure is often quoted alongside condo numbers, but it describes a different product with a much tighter supply. On the same-unit index, San Francisco single-family homes rose about 3.5% in the year to July 2026, so even the house market looks calmer when measured unit by unit.

What One Tower's Repeat Sales Show

Lumina at 201 Folsom Street is a useful test because it has enough resales to mean something. By public record, the South Beach tower closed 29 condominiums between January 1 and October 15, 2026. That compares with 22 in the same window of 2025. Median days on market fell from 25 to 12, and the median price per square foot rose from about $1,252 to $1,339. Read alone, that is a strong recovery story.

The repeat sales temper it. Of the 22 Lumina units that closed in 2026 with a prior recorded sale in the building, 12 sold above their earlier price and 10 sold below. The spread ran from a gain of about 21% to a loss of about 17%, both on purchases made in 2015. Even the 2026 median of $1,339 per square foot sits below the building's 2018 high of $1,403.

The top of the building shows the pattern most clearly. Two upper-floor residences each closed at $7 million in 2026, and both had last sold in 2015. Measured against those earlier purchases, one returned about 1.5% gross and the other lost about 6.7%. At Lumina, activity, speed and headline prices all rose. Unit-level appreciation was close to flat. That is the Case-Shiller index again, at the scale of one address.

The Downtown Discount Is Still Visible in Listings

The gap is widest in downtown buildings that are a few years past new. In July, the San Francisco Standard reported a citywide condo median of about $1.2 million, and described downtown condos as the city's best bargains, with developers and resellers still competing for buyers.

The same article described a two-bedroom at 2 Mint Plaza that sold for $2.15 million in a multiple-offer situation in 2014. It returned to market this year at a list price nearly $1 million below that, and the seller offered credit toward HOA dues to compete with developer incentives in new construction. It went into contract a month later.

Prices haven't caught up to where they were even a decade ago, especially in relatively modern buildings slightly more dated than shiny new towers.

That is the Standard's summary of a SoMa specialist's view. The same piece cited a 6,600-square-foot SoMa live-work building that sold for $424 per square foot in April and a tri-level loft with a private terrace at about $600 per square foot in June. Those prices sit in the same city statistics as Lumina's top floors and the Cow Hollow condo the Standard reported listed at $4 million and sold all cash for $6.7 million. A citywide median picks the middle sale from all of them, and that middle sale describes very little about any single building.

Why Cash Makes the Median Easier to Misread

Condo financing in San Francisco has also changed in a way that matters here. Citing public records compiled by Old Republic Title, the San Francisco Standard reported in September that one in three San Francisco home sales between January 1 and September 1, 2026 closed all cash. It also found that condos at any price point were more likely to sell for cash than houses. The paper noted that buyers at the upper end who pay cash can skip appraisal requirements, and quoted a SoMa specialist who said a cash offer can close in under two weeks.

When an appraisal is part of a deal, someone compares the contract price with recent comparable sales before money moves. A cash sale removes that step. In a market with thin inventory, a buyer who anchors on a 20% headline gain and then waives the outside price check can set a building's next comp well above what its own repeat sales support. The Standard also reported that some buyers in AI-related fields are borrowing against pre-IPO stock to make cash offers. One agent told the paper that the money from upcoming IPOs is "already circulating." Our earlier look at IPO cycles and downtown condo demand traces how that liquidity tends to reach high-rise listings.

Reading a Downtown Comp Sheet This Fall

The practical response is to price the unit, not the city. In a building-level valuation, these questions do most of the work:

1. What did this unit, or its stack, sell for last time? A prior recorded sale in the same building is a private, one-unit Case-Shiller reading. Lumina's 12-to-10 split shows how wide the range can be under one roof.
2. How does the building's current price per square foot compare with its own peak? A tower still below its 2018 high per square foot is recovering, even while its closing count rises.
3. Which floors and exposures are in the recent comps? A season with two top-floor closings will lift a building's median without saying anything about a mid-floor unit facing the same way.
4. Is the competition new construction offering incentives? The Mint Plaza seller's HOA credit was a response to developer concessions nearby, and those concessions change what a resale is effectively worth.
5. Was the comp all cash? A cash sale with no appraisal is a legitimate price, but it is a price that nobody outside the deal checked.

Our framework for pricing a downtown condo by building tier applies the same logic to listings. The high-rise directory is the starting point for comparing towers directly.

Questions Buyers Ask About These Numbers

Is the Case-Shiller condo index a downtown measure? No. It is a broad San Francisco market index and does not separate out downtown towers, so downtown buildings need their own repeat-sale history.

Does the index lag the market? Somewhat. S&P's methodology describes each monthly Case-Shiller point as a blend of three months of recorded sales pairs, a design meant to offset delays in deed records.

If inventory is down by half, aren't prices bound to keep rising? Scarcity explains the faster sales and the stronger median. The same-unit index peaked in May 2026 even as inventory tightened, which suggests buyers are competing for the best units more than they are lifting every unit.

At Bryant Kowalczyk, valuations begin with a building's own sales record, unit by unit and floor by floor, because that is the history a downtown high-rise price has to answer to. To see how a residence you own or are considering compares with its building's repeat sales, schedule a private consultation.